Brett Steenbarger – Paper: Trading with Uncertainty

October 24, 2011
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“It is ironic that traders spend considerable time researching better indicators and models while giving little thought to the time frame over which these trading tools might be valid. If, indeed, the market consists of ever-changing cycles, then any system or indicator is apt to degrade in its performance over time. In fact, if one waits for an indicator or system to develop a fine historical track record, the odds are good that their useful life are limited. What can a trader do in the face of such uncertainty?”

http://marintrading.com/steenbarger.pdf

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